November is historically the strongest month for Bitcoin – so why are the analyses pessimistic?

Apart from a weekly high of $9,616, Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range below the weekly resistance of $9,616 and supported at $9,100. There has been a pattern of daily highs in the last 5 days as trading volumes have almost come to a standstill. The Bitcoin price is approaching the 20-day moving average (DMA), which coincides with a volume gap in the visible part of the volume profile (VPVR). With a drop below 9,100 US dollars, the price could fall to 8,950 US dollars, where buyers might show interest. If buyers do not enter the downtrend, the price could drop to $8,600. If $8,600 does not stimulate buyers, $8,300 could be the next point of contact for the Bitcoin price as there is clear support.

 

Traders looking for reasons to sell will find that the MACD is about to roll over and the shrinking green bars in the MACD histogram correspond to the decline in trading volume. The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is stuck under $9,250. But while bears are likely to look for a short of 9,300 US dollars, there is still the possibility of a breakout. The 4-hour MACD is rising towards the signal line and the relative strength index (RSI) is also heading towards 50.

Bulls want the Bitcoin price to rise above the moving average of the middle Bollinger band and the rising trend line (black dotted line) that marks the daily pattern of higher lows at $9,300. In the short term, the Bitcoin clearing price could expand from 9,350 US dollars to 9,450 US dollars, which corresponds to the upper arm of the Bollinger band. As can be seen on the weekly chart, the Bitcoin price is falling back towards the descending channel and the VPVR indicator confirms the above-mentioned possibility of a price drop to $8,300 if buyers show no interest in $9,100 and $8,950.

 

Ultimately, the price is in limbo as buyers and sellers attempt to determine the further course. Swingtraders are probably waiting to open positions below $9,000 and Twitter is bubbling with investors expressing a desire to buy the dip when the price falls to the $8,600 to $8,300 zone. Readers who keep pace with Cointelegraph’s technical analysis are likely to sigh exhausted as the next statement has become rather superfluous lately, but it has to be said. Situations in which the Bollinger bands become tighter, the volume decreases and the trading range narrows usually signal that a large movement is imminent.

The bulls will dream of a high volume driving the Bitcoin rate through the resistance of $9,350 and over the high volume knot of $9,200 to $9,459. They will be aiming for a 14-day higher high of $10,150, which coincides with a high volume knot on the VPVR and upper Bollinger Band arm. In the meantime, if they haven’t come too close, the bears will try to open positions at $9,300 and make a downward move to at least $8,950 if a stop is near the descending channel trendline and 20-MA of the Bollinger Band indicator. After the bears have taken some profit at this point, they may try to continue the ride to $8,600 or even $8,300.

Of course, Bitcoin seems to have a will of his own and often contradicts the bulls’ best wishes and the bears’ machinations. Traders will also remember that November is historically a powerful month for Bitcoin. Blocktown Capital’s managing partner James Todaro recently stressed this on Twitter.